According to a recent analysis, China’s carbon emissions are expected to decline in 2024 as record growth in renewable energy capacity is now adequate to meet rising demand.
China, the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, has rejected calls for a more aggressive carbon neutrality target than its current 2060 target.
According to the International Energy Agency, between 2023 and 2050, the nation is expected to contribute 45% of the world’s emissions from fossil fuel assets.
However, China has also been adding renewable energy capacity at a dizzying rate; according to an analysis published on Monday by the UK-based climate website Carbon Brief, new solar installed in 2023 alone will equal all of the installed capacity in the US.
According to a report by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, “newly installed solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear capacity added in 2023 alone will generate an estimated 423 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, equal to the total electricity consumption of France.”
According to the report, “fossil-fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions into decline in 2024 are all but guaranteed to happen due to the massive ramp-up in installation and a projected rebound in hydropower generation as drought recedes and reservoirs refill.”
“The rate of low-carbon energy expansion is now sufficient to not only meet but exceed the average annual increase in China’s demand for electricity overall,” the analysis claims, suggesting that the decline could continue.
The report’s foundation is made up of both commercial and official data.
But the report notes that China is “setting the stage for a showdown between the country’s traditional and newly emerging interest groups” as it continues to increase its coal power capacity.
Growth in renewable energy “threatens the interests of local governments with a high exposure to the coal sector and the coal industry,” according to Carbon Brief.
It is reasonable to assume that these stakeholders will oppose the change, which could lead to worries about possible obstacles.
Prior to this month’s COP28 negotiations, Chinese and American climate officials met earlier this week. Both sides praised the productive talks, but they did not provide any specifics.
